Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
